docFinder alert PLS PLS
Week of October 8, 2012Volume 2, No. 33

Energy Independence: Complex Issue

Some key slides illustrate important dynamics


Dramatic U.S. Growth

Tight Oil and Shale Gas


September 17, 2012


Full Presentation



U.S. Oil and Gas Supply

Importing Oil, Exporting Products


September 17, 2012


Full Presentation


The dramatic growth of U.S. oil and gas supplies is a positive game changer for our industry and our country's energy picture and reverses our historical growing dependence on global oil sources. This  docFinder Alert highlights a few recent slides that will be familiar to many involved in the day-to-day business of drilling and producing these valued commodities.  For those on the periphery, these slides demonstrate some of the complexity involved in fulfilling the goal of energy independence.

The slide above left was recently presented by the EIA at a conference in Brazil and encapsulates just how quickly dry shale gas production has ramped to over 25 Bcfpd, beginning in earnest a short five years ago.  On the oil side, the major tight plays show rapid growth and now have almost added 1.0 MMbpd.  Looking to 2013, the U.S. will lead all non-OPEC countries in oil growth with an expected incremental 0.5 MMbpd. Contained in the full presentation, one slide concludes that 2013 WTI oil prices will be in the $90 range while global GDP growth will hover between 2%-3%.  Looking even farther ahead, the EIA has a scenario that shows the U.S. cutting its petroleum imports from 50% of consumption to 14% by 2035.


The slide above right, courtesy of the world's largest independent refiner Valero (NYSE: VLO - up 37% YTD), also displays the growth of U.S. oil and gas supplies -- although in a larger context and over an extended period of time.  Focusing on the oil side, Valero's internal estimates create a scenario of U.S. shale oil adding over 3.0 MMbpd by 2016.  Also, U.S. refiners are globally competitive and shifted to a net exporter of products in 2009.  Regarding midstream, Valero is projecting another 2.25 MMbpd of capacity to the Gulf Coast by YE2014.  On price, Valero's analyses of increased Gulf Coast supplies are expected to shift LLS pricing from a structural $2/bbl premium to a discount under Brent.   Valero expects natural gas prices to remain low and remain disconnected from global oil and LNG prices for the foreseeable future.


More HOT slides and data below. 

Additional views on U.S. and global oil supply fundamentals are presented below courtesy of EOG Resources, Royal Dutch Shell, Laricina Corporation and Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.


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featured.slides from docFinder

Slide Slide Slide Slide

EOG Resources

2 MMbd More by 2015


October 4, 2012


Royal Dutch Shell

Oil Peaks After 2030


September 27, 2012


Laricina Corp.

Oil Sands can Compete


September 11, 2012


Global Oil Reserves

Access Matters


October 3, 2012


EOG Resources

(NYSE: EOG) projects 2012 YOY liquids growth of 35% with a focus on the two best shale oil plays - the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.  In the Eagle Ford, EOG has 1.6 billion boe in potential reserves. The above slide shows a long term view beginning in 1920, illustrating the distinct reversal of U.S. oil production plus another 2 MMbpd of growth by 2015.  YTD 2012, the U.S. imported 58% of daily oil needs of 14.8 MMbpd - improvement from 60% in 2011.

Royal Dutch Shell

(NYSE: RDS.A and RDS.B) presents its global energy view from all sources to 2050. The slide shows world energy demand growing from less than 300 MMboepd now to ~400 MMboepd.  Yes, that's 400 MMboepd -- every day.  In Shell's view, global oil production continues to grow through 2030 -- after which gas, biomass, solar and wind start to gain larger share.  A leading LNG producer, Shell has an impressive FLNG facility (Prelude) under construction.

Laricina Energy Ltd., founded in 2005, is a private Calgary-based oil sands company.  In answering the question of whether new oil sands can compete, the slide above shows that "while large", tight oil will not result in energy independence. The growth in shale oil production may back out imported light sweet and/or light sour oil -- not heavy sour.  Oil sands production is needed.  Furthermore, SAGD breakeven price is competitive at a steam-to-oil ratio (SOR) of >3.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a Canadian industry association representing about 90% of Canada's oil and gas production.  In stark reality, the slide above depicts that less than 10% of the world's oil reserves (excluding oil sands) are open to the private sector. Conversely, 80% of the world's oil reserves are restricted from the private sector.  Knowing these facts are critical to policy discussions regarding security of oil supply and prices.

Full Presentation

Full Presentation

Full Presentation

Full Presentation

featured.transactions from PLS global M&A database

10/11/12Forest Oil sells south Louisiana assets to Texas Petroleum$220 MM
10/11/12 Gibson Energy acquries OMNI Energy Solutions (Oilfield Services) $445 MM
10/04/12Carrizo forms Niobrara JV with Oil India and Indian Oil$83 MM
10/03/12 Argent Energy Trust acquires TX and OK fields from EnergyQuest II $133 MM

Source: PLS M&A Database