docFinder alert PLS PLS
Week of August 13, 2012Volume 2, No. 29

New Data: Gas Brightening, Q2 Production Flat

Plus recent Data pointing to improving Supply and Demand balance.


Top 20, Q2 2012

Gas Flat, 233 Rigs Running


August 7, 2012


Full Presentation



Top 20, Q3 2011

Gas Up 1.5%, 452 Rigs Running


December 2, 2011


Full Presentation


 Timely and accurate data is critical to competitive strength.  PLS's docFinder database will improve your corporate intelligence at a fraction of the cost of hiring new analysts!  This docFinder Alert quickly provides you with key data points to gauge the current status of the U.S. natural gas supply and demand balance and assist in allowing you to form the basis of your gas price outlook.


Courtesy of Chesapeake Energy, the two slides above show actual industry production data for the Top 20 natural gas companies.  At your fingertips is quarterly data for production and rigs plus company R/P and reserves. Key takeaways from the data above are:

  • U.S. natural gas production (Top 20) is FLAT at 29.3 Bcfd Q2 vs. Q1
  • YOY, production (Top 20) is up 1.4 Bcfd (5.1%) from 27.9 Bcfd
  • #1 producer ExxonMobil production (3.9 Bcfd) is virtually flat  from Q2 2011
  • Gas rig count (Top 20) is 233 (July 12), down 43% from Oct. 11and down 50% from Jan. 10
  • Gas rig count (Total) is 451 (July 12), down 48% from Oct. 11 and down 44% from Jan. 10
  • Twelve companies are in the 1+ Bcfd club.
  • BHP vaults onto the list via acquisitions of Petrohawk and Fayetteville acreage from Chesapeake
  • Biggest Q2 v. Q1 growth in % terms are Anadarko (5.3%) and EQT (11%)
  • Chesapeake growth rate of 1.6% Q2 vs. Q1.  YOY growth rate of 17.6%.
  • Chesapeake lays down the most gas rigs from Jan 2010 -- down 83% (from 110 rigs to 12 rigs!) 
  • BP (6 rigs), ConocoPhillips (5 rigs), Chevron (7 rigs)
  • Southwestern is drilling ahead with 16 rigs running



More HOT slides and data below. 

PLS highlights recent key slides and presentations to quickly get you up-to-speed on U.S. natural gas.  Below are additional presentations from  Wells Fargo using Bentek Energy analysis, Enercom showing micro and macro views, Credit Agricole building the case for $4.00 gas in 2013 and Southwestern Energy who is drilling ahead in the Fayetteville.

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    featured.slides from docFinder

    Slide Slide Slide Slide

    Gas set to drop YOY

    YTD Avg = 63.7 Bcfpd

    August 14, 2012


    Breakeven Prices

    Marcellus leader

    August 13, 2012


    Gas Brightening

    $4.00 in 2013

    August 13, 2012


    Gas Price v. Rig Count

    Breaching 500 rigs

    August 15, 2012

    On behalf of  Wells Fargo, Bentek Energy presents its latest data and forward views on domestic natural gas. 2012 U.S. dry gas production is forecast at 63.7 Bcfd (vs. 61.5 Bcfd in 2011).  More importantly, the slide above shows from now forward monthly gas production look to be below 2011. YTD, the U.S. is 1.2 Bcfd net long on gas supply. The gas inventory surplus has shed 541 Bcf in 18 weeks.  For price, Bentek expects Henry Hub to average $3.50 through 2017.


    Enercom just concluded its Denver Oil and Gas Conference. The slide above shows their version of breakeven prices for key gas shale plays. Marcellus leads ($2.88), followed by Haynesville ($3.51), Woodford ($3.93) and Fayetteville ($4.19). Also shown is the average price estimate of $4.00 in 2013.  This slide regarding production by play shows how production continued to increase and demonstrates the length of the lag between supply and declining rig count.

    According to Credit Agricole, the gas horizon is brightening and gas supply growth is slowing to 4.5% in 2012. There is a 12-15 month lag between the rig count  decline and supply response. The BHI gas rig count began its precipitous decline just 12 months ago (mid-August 2011) from 985 to 495 currently. The expected supply response is just now kicking in.  Forecast gas prices now are $2.65 for 2012, $4.00 for 2013 (assuming a normal winter) and $5.00 long term.


    Southwestern Energy was the eighth largest U.S. gas producer in Q2 2012 (1.5 Bcfd, up 2.9% for the quarter and 11.9% YOY). Slide above clearly shows the lag between rig count and price. Also, vividly shown is the first gas price spike in late 2000 (to near $10) as the gas bubble of the 1990's burst. At the tail of the data, prices look to have bottomed. This slide shows SWN's sterling performance in its core Fayetteville and cites F&D costs of $1.13 in 2011.


    Full Presentation

    Full Presentation

    Full Presentation

    Full Presentation

    featured.transactions from PLS global M&A database

    08/13/12Privately-held Citation Oil & Gas buys Kansas assets from Noble Energy$140 MM
    08/12/12PE backed Eagle Energy sells Mississippian Lime play to Midstates Petroleum$650 MM
    08/08/12Westfire Energy acquires Guide Exploration (Canada)$430 MM
    08/06/12Goodrich sells South Henderson field, Rusk County, Texas$95 MM

    Source: PLS M&A Database