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Valero Energy Corp
May 2012 Investor Presentation
| Ashley Smith | Page 12 of 11 |
March 07, 2014
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017- 2020 MMBPD Sweet Crude Supply Growth - Shale Base Case Conversion Capacity Growth - Lowers Sweet Demand Expect U.S. and Canadian Crude Supply to Provide Feedstock Cost Advantage 12 Changes in Sweet Crude Balances U.S. GC Light/Medium Sweet Imports in 2011 226 952 MBPD Last 6 - months 226 763 MBPD 225 Expect significant growth in U.S. shale crude and Canadian production plus heavy - up projects in Mid - Con that free - up light/sweet crude oil 226 Volumes moving via pipeline, rail, and barge from Mid - Con to U.S. Gulf Coast 223LLS224 225 Expect all Gulf Coast light/medium sweet imports could be pushed out of PADD III by 2014 to 2016 226 Expect LLS will go from structural ~$2/bbl premium to parity with, then discount under, Brent 226 Expect Brent will be marginal crude that sets product prices and sets higher feedstock cost for global, coastal (including U.S. East Coast) light/sweet refiners 225 Valero should benefit from wider margins at our Memphis + Gulf Coast region lighter/sweeter capacity with potential to widen medium and heavy sour discounts to Brent 225 Also, expect growing volumes of Canadian heavy sours to reach U.S. Gulf Coast and benefit Valero