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Department of Energy
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2016 EIA Energy Conference
| Chris Atkinson | Page 37 of 11 |
April 26, 2024
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The Probable Pathway to 2025 and Beyond ? Vehicle powertrain technology – more electrification, hybridization, downsizing, waste energy recovery, 48V systems? ? Vehicle structures – vehicle downsizing, weight reduction, more use of light-weight materials. ? Vehicle ownership – how will the 84 month ownership cycle be reconciled with 1-2 year product cycles? ? Ride-sharing, car-sharing – new ownership and usage models. ? OEMs – the center of gravity of the high-technology components of the vehicle has shifted to suppliers both old (Bosch, DENSO, Continental, Delphi) and new (Mobileye, Cruise Automation). ? ADAS systems will proliferate, leading to L3 automation (such as the Tesla Autopilot) being essentially standard (L3 is a suite of technologies). ? L4 automation requires or facilitates new vehicle architectures (electrification?) but will probably be slow in penetrating the full market. ? Regulations? ? The implication for energy usage – energy usage in the LD fleet will almost certainly be reduced by 2025. After that timeframe, it is not clear. Chris Atkinson, Program Director ARPA-E