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Department of Energy
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2016 EIA Energy Conference
| Chris Atkinson | Page 34 of 11 |
April 25, 2024
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But be wary of non-linear thinking ? Vehicle ownership – there is no clear threat to the traditional model. Millennials have merely delayed purchases for several reasons (city dwellers, high debt loads, disinterest) but as soon as they move to the suburbs…. ? Vehicle purchase – leasing and other new models will emerge. ? Vehicle usage – ride-sharing versus car sharing. ? Disruption – Uber has disrupted the taxi industry (at $1.50 to $2.00 per mile), but not the passenger car industry (with total cost of ownership at $0.60 per mile). ? Economics – vehicles are currently bought, sold, paid for and operated on a VMT basis. If total VMT does not decrease, it is not at all clear that sales will drop, or usage change significantly. ? Fuel consumption – future vehicles will be significantly more fuel efficient than today, with no other changes in regulation or economics. Chris Atkinson, Program Director ARPA-E